6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas

Well here they are folks. The last 6 polls by the following polling outfits show Sen. Clinton ahead of Sen. Obama. Read anything you want into them and feel free to comment

Belo Texas Tracking Clinton 46%, Obama 45%Link

PPP Clinton 50%, Obama 44%Link

IVR Clinton 49%, Obama 46%Link

Insider Advantage Clinton 49%, Obama 44%Link

ARG Clinton 50%, Obama 47%Link

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Clinton 47%, Obama 44%Link



Display:


Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 5)

Looks like even though being outspent at 3 or 4 to 1, Clinton wins.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 02:50:20 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 3)

I hope you are right.


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 02:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 4)

That would be a nice side-effect. It would represent the triumph of policy over the audacity of marketing hype.


by LakersFan on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 02:58:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And I hope the superdelegates are (2.00 / 2)

paying attention, as I'm sure they are.


Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.
by Rumarhazzit on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And I hope the superdelegates are (none / 0)

Don't count on it.  Most of these superdelegates have to run for reelection in November and a lot could be washed away by the increased Republican turnout if Hillary is on the ballot.  


by Toddwell on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:11:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't buy that. Either of our candidates (2.00 / 1)

will be demonized in ways that will attempt to draw out the Republican vote in the GE. I'm not willing to let the repugs decide for me who our nominee should be...


Obama supporter working to defeat McCain.
by Rumarhazzit on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't buy that. Either of our candidates (none / 0)

Much more so with Hillary.  Republicans just see her face and go out and vote Republican.  


by Toddwell on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Didn't happen in NY (2.00 / 2)

The Republican vote didn't turn out in NY. And there was a Republican governor at the same time. So there are enough Rep votes to win statewide in NY if they are motivated enough.


by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Didn't happen in NY (none / 0)

Big deal, she won in one of the most liberal states in the nation.  There are not enough Republican votes in NY to win statewide anymore unless you are a popular incumbent like George Pataki in 2002.  Voter Registration in New York is 49% Democrat, 30% Republican and the rest independent.  


by Toddwell on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sorry for the facts (2.00 / 2)

but,

nyc has a republican mayor.

the state senate is controlled by republicans

N.Y. is a red state with about 5 pockets of deep blue: nyc, and some upstate urban centers

lately the suburbs have trended dem but that is very recently.

You can't get a state senate that is Republican if N.Y. was as blue as you say


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:52:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually the 'burbs maybe reverting (2.00 / 0)

Our town board went from Dem to Rep this last year. The county leg. is split.


by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sorry for the facts (none / 0)

Republicans have held the state Senate for two reasons.  One is that the lines are drawn to pack Democrats all into a few districts and spread Republican out all accross the state, although it is just the opposite in the state Assembly(which Democrats control 108-42).  The second is that there are some very popular longtime Republican incumbents on Long Island and New York City who continue to win reelection in overwhelmingly Democratic districts.  

Also, you must remember that Hillary Clinton won in 2000 only on the strength of the New York City vote.  She lost elsewhere in the state(running between eight and 10 points behind Gore.  


by Toddwell on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sorry for the facts (2.00 / 1)

Huh?  Seems to me that I recall that she won majorities all across the state, particularly in Republican upstate NY...


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:23:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sorry for the facts (none / 0)

A Republican in NY,NJ,CT,PA is different from a Republican in OH,MO,IN. Republicans in NY,NJ,CT,PA are more liberal on social issues but conservative on Fiscal issues- The Arlen Specters,The Christine Todd Whitmans- The Clinton- DLC ideology is similar to their philosophy.

A Republican in OH,MO,IN,NC are conservative on social issues Gods,Guns and Gays. They are the ones who are passionately hateful towards Clinton or Obama.


by nkpolitics on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

If "win" means barely holding on to what was a 20 point+ lead two weeks ago and still losing the delegate count in the sate, then absolutely!  


by HSTruman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:36:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Are you still here


Wisdom Is The Reward For Listening Over A Lifetime
by gunner on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

And your comment means...?


by HSTruman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 0)

It means that you keep saying the same thing in every post.  Yes, we know Hillary had a 20 point lead, and yes, that lead was whittled down to nothing.  If the Obamentum had continued, he should have passed her without chance of her catching up, but he didn't.  That's the interesting and exciting thing, get it?


No politician ever lost an election because he underestimated the intelligence of the American public. - PT Barnum, paraphrased...
by jarhead5536 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Hmmm, I hadn't commented in this thread previously, but OK.  Thanks for the info.  You can now return to focusing on how HRC will win the nomination even though the delegate math doesn't add up.  Carry on.


by HSTruman on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:28:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

To be fair, most of these polls do not have a good record, especially ARG and Zogby.

As for Belo, I have no comment, but the race looks tight as a tick.


by American1989 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 02:51:06 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 3)

Totally agree. Keeping my fingers crossed.
Remember NH polls which showed a BHO win

Praying for a HRC win


by indus on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 2)

She may very well win both big contests tonight and live to fight another day. What a primary season...


by Bob Johnson on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:02:32 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 1)

Indeed. Sometimes voters are smarter than the MSM, and actually chose the better candidate, despite the politics of hype.


I'm United Methodist. I already have a Messiah.
by KnowVox on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:09:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

you really think she's run a better campaign than him?  what.ever.


by affratboy22 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

So what the voters in the majority of states are just too dumb to see the light and vote HRC?


by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:23:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 0)

No, but they were swept up by Obama.  The guy has been on the national scene for all of 2 months?  And already the s*%t is starting to hit the fan for him...


by mikes101 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:33:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 1)

I think she could win the primary. I'm more concerned about the caucus. If we could get similar results like that of Nevada in the Texas caucus, I think that's big. I just don't think it is going to happen.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:05:33 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (2.00 / 0)

Talk Left has a post about Obama supporters busted trying to stuff the caucus ballot box in TX. Supposedly they offered voters leaving the polls the opportunity to fill out assignment forms and told them they didn't have to go to the caucus. They shouldn't even have the forms now. They are to be filled out in person at the caucus.

And I'm sure these little helpers intended to turn in all the Hillary forms as well. Not.


by ineedalife on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:53:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Talkleft is so in the tank for Clinton they make this place look balanced, and this is is just another example of that: list unsourced rumors, do not mention a Dallas Morning News story that has a Clinton camp mailer detailing how to suppress Obama support in the Caucus.


by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Hmm, the amount of early voting that was done before last Friday, when Hillary ticked up a few points, ought to give ya pause; Obama likely is ahead on that metric.


by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:22:13 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Most of these polls are within the margin of error.


by mecarr on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:11 PM EST

mecarr (none / 0)

at this point, it would be an upset if Obama won anything but Vermont.

You have to admit that.  Listen to the media.

They have the exit polls.

Look at the trends, etc.

Why do you think the Obama camp is saying clinton needs to win big, and that she can't catch up in delegates?

He can win really simple: win Ohio and Texas like he did the last 11 and its' over.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:30:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If somehow Clinton wins Texas (2.00 / 2)

and loses delegates.

IT will HELP HER.

That would be a national story of how, "elected delegates" aren't democratic.

It happened in Nevada, but no one thought it really mattered at 13 to 12, or 12 to 13.  But now, no one with a straight face can say, Hillary won Texas, lost the delegate count, but she should drop out because she's behind in "elected delegates".


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:28:53 PM EST

Re: If somehow Clinton wins Texas (none / 0)

My G-d! Talk about magical thinking! Every day it becomes more and more apparent that so many leaders, mayors, governors, congressmen and women are waiting for her to drop out so the Dem. Party can start the GE campaign. Everywhere you turn, you hear the same thing - she needs to drop out gracefully and not destroy our chances in the GE. It's obvious to everyone that she's not going to get the delegates she needs today and that her chances of garnering the nomination are not great enough to warrant an non-stop, drag-out battle to the convention.

At what point, will the ground swell become so apparent that she needs to give it up so we can be a united party with good prospects in the GE?

Maybe this is what we really need to come out of today:

http://thepage.time.com/tom-brokaw-on-ms nbc/

When will enough be enough?


by desertjedi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

can you tell me one thing: (2.00 / 1)

If it is over, then why isn't it over?

Not even Hillary could spin a double digit loss in ohio and texas like she took in wis, md, and va.

She had reasons there.  No excuses in Ohio.  A few in Texas.

The question that is scary is:

Why won't Obama supporters question why their candidate hasn't won "the big one".

The "big one" means, both sides agree, "this is big".  No excuses. That is Ohio today.

It will be Penn in 7 weeks.

It was California on S.T.

There is a problem here for Obamamania


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: can you tell me one thing: (none / 0)

Why isn't NC a big one, its a bigger state than Mass. or NJ and yet Clinton supporters don't seem to regard it as a major state?


by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: can you tell me one thing: (none / 0)

I'm sorry did you say something coherent?

Maybe...only the big states count? And 11 or 12 wins in a row doesn't really reflect the will of the American people?

Obviously, neither Obama nor HRC will end up with the requisite number of delegates to earn the nomination at this point.


by desertjedi on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:34:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If somehow Clinton wins Texas (none / 0)

Or her being close in Alabama despite losing by 15 points.


by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Maybe wishful thinking and a everything breaking right scenario.  


by Safe at Home on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:37:20 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

That guy isn't what you would call an 'Obama supporter' in the traditional sense.

But, he is on the ground in TX, knows his stuff, and probably is better at calling this sort of thing then you or I.  His track record this cycle has been pretty good, including NH.


by Cycloptichorn on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:44:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If anything these polls show (none / 0)

that this party is very deeply divided.  Neither candidate has anything like a mandate of any kind.  Each really needs the other and cannot afford to take any voter for granted (both Democratic voters and those "moderate Repubs and Independents").  


by newhorizon on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:03:23 PM EST

I agree (2.00 / 0)

but what logic would tell obama supporters + media that a divided party race should be ended because the "elected del" count is like:

1320
1215

Does that look like someone has won?

Esp, when at least 300+ of those delegates were from shrewd politicking?  Nothing wrong with that, but its' not like it shows some will of the people.


by yellowdem1129 on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

I think they call it a "Mexican Standoff"


by Safe at Home on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:06:34 PM EST

Re: 6 Polls show Clinton leading in Texas (none / 0)

Well, he has been right on virtually every state that he's predicted.


by Socraticsilence on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 04:34:35 PM EST

This just in (none / 0)

Texas is relevant again.


by Skaje on Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 05:20:08 PM EST


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